Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Resolved: Oct 22, 2026, 11:23 AM
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Probability Timeline
First raid completion occurs in first 10 hours of release100%
First raid completion occurs in first 24 hours of release100%
First solo raid completion occurs before the end of October 202619.6%
Woox is a member of the team that gets the first raid completion0%
Port Khazard is a member of the team that gets the first raid completion0%
First Obligator confirmed sold goes for over 10 billion GP100%
Update/raids release is delayed more than 1 hour from the scheduled release time (7 AM EST scheduled)0%
A bug/exploit/etc requires a day 1 rollback0%
The first raid completion also awards the first purple (raid unique)0%
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Old School Runescape releases its 4th raid tomorrow at 7 AM EST.
- These props will resolve based on the events after it releases such as first completions, drops, potential bugs, etc. I will resolve all of these based on my best judgement of the publicly available information.
- I expect most resolutions to be clear cut but that isnt always the case.
- The timed raid completion props (10/24 hours) will be based on time since release unless otherwise stated.
- Dated props will be based on EST time zone unless otherwise stated.