Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastHappens in September 99%Leader of 21 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+35.7 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jul 13, 26, 10:36 PM UTCSep 12, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Kalshi"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiNext James Bond actor?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This is an independent multiple-choice prop market that resolves based on the events of the next official General Nintendo Direct broadcast following the June 9, 2026 presentation.
- Each added option will resolve to YES or NO based on the following criteria:
- Qualifying Presentation: The presentation must be officially titled simply as a "Nintendo Direct" (e.g., "Nintendo Direct - September 2026").
- Presentations explicitly excluded from resolving this market include "Partner Showcase", "Indie World", "Super Nintendo World" or "Museum" tours, and game-specific showcases (such as "Pokémon Presents" or dedicated single-game Directs).
- Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined using the official stream and video archive published on the official Nintendo YouTube Channel.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+42.0pt76%
- 940 - 950m-42.0pt19.2%
- 960 - 970m+0.2pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $344.8K
- 24h Vol
- $102.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+32.0pt61%
- Jack Barton-2.0pt19%
- Callum Turner-11.0pt16%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+13.1pt32%
- No Bond chosen-7.8pt16%
- Jack Barton+0.9pt14%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+6.0pt28.4%
- Barrett Pfeiffer+2.0pt18.4%
- Drew Campbell-1.0pt12.8%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKET# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- 70-80M+8.8pt63%
- 80-90M+3.0pt35%
- 60-70M-4.6pt1%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIOscar Winner: Best Picture
- The Odyssey52%
- Dune: Part Three13%
- The Black Ball11%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.9M
- 24h Vol
- $32.7K
- Primetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
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- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
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- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
- Post Malone: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026)
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Morgan Wallen: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next General Nintendo Direct Prop Market (Add answers)?
- Manifold Markets prices Happens in September at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Next General Nintendo Direct Prop Market (Add answers) resolve?
- Next General Nintendo Direct Prop Market (Add answers) is scheduled to resolve on September 12, 2026.
- How is Next General Nintendo Direct Prop Market (Add answers) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria