Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 64.2%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMay 21, 25, 5:10 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Oscar-winning director László Nemes (Son of Saul) is set to adapt Cormac McCarthy’s novel Outer Dark into a feature film.
- The film will star Jacob Elordi (Euphoria, Saltburn) and Lily-Rose Depp (Nosferatu, The Idol) as siblings entangled in a harrowing tale set in Depression-era Appalachia.
- Production is scheduled to begin in 2026, with an anticipated release in mid-2027.
- This market will resolve to YES if, by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2027, a new Outer Dark film:
- Has a confirmed theatrical release in any country, evidenced by listings on reputable platforms such as IMDb, Box Office Mojo, or official press releases.
- Is available for streaming on a major platform accessible in the U.S., including but not limited to Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Hulu, Max, Apple TV+, or Disney+.
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Outer Dark (McCarthy) film adaptation before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Outer Dark (McCarthy) film adaptation before 2028? resolve?
- Outer Dark (McCarthy) film adaptation before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Outer Dark (McCarthy) film adaptation before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Oscar-winning director László Nemes (Son of Saul) is set to adapt Cormac McCarthy’s novel Outer Dark into a feature film.