Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastApple 25.1%+3.1%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
77
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 3, 25, 11:59 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Apple25%
Compare venues· NVIDIA
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Futuur
World’s largest company at the end of 2026
5mo
57%
31%
9%
+4 more outcomes
48 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.9K
24h Vol$20.4
FUTUUR
Also available on Polymarket
Largest Company end of December 2026?
0.3%5mo
+2.0%57%
-2.9%28%
-1.0%10%
+25 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$4.7M
24h Vol$20.1K
POLYMARKETRules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31st 2026, as of market close.
- The resolution source for this market will be https://companiesmarketcap.com
- See also @/Bayesian/largest-company-end-of-2025
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.8k99.7%POLYMARKETWill Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — NoSikspat8d ago
POLYMARKETWill Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — NoSikspat8d ago$1.4k99.5%POLYMARKETWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — Nohklcrypt12d ago
POLYMARKETWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — Nohklcrypt12d agoVolume trend
$13Jul 816d of dataJul 25
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This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31st 2026, as of market close.
- The resolution source for this market will be https://companiesmarketcap.com
- See also @/Bayesian/largest-company-end-of-2025