Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.8%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 5, 22, 9:01 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions of orbital debris) be observed before 2030?
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This resolves YES if we have experienced Kessler syndrome before the close date.
- Kessler syndrome is a scenario where collisions between objects and satellites in low earth orbit generate debris which then collides with more satellites.
- I'd like to exercise discretion in resolving this, so I will avoid betting in this market myself.
- Here are a few factors I might find important.
- Whether the collisions are cascading, i.e. it's not just debris from one collision that disables other satellites, but debris from those collisions must themselves result in debris that disables other satellites.
- Timescale: If the rate of destruction of satellites spikes over the course of a few days or weeks, I'm inclined to call that Kessler syndrome.