Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
Other 58%Leader of 5 outcomes
Other 58%Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 24, 12:53 PM UTCDec 31, 34, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Clarifications:
- Product rename does not change the outcome, i.e. the bot's name does not need to be "Optimus" for a positive resolution of a specific year
- "Other" = Cancellation of the Optimus Program, Insolvency, Significant Change of Design (Humanoid -> 4-legged does not count, humanoid -> 6DoF Arm counts as "Other")
- Mass production indicators:
- first deliveries
- explicit communication of mass production start