What are the current odds for In what decade will we have space elevators?

Manifold Markets prices Later or never at 59.1% as of November 4, 2026.

When does In what decade will we have space elevators resolve?

In what decade will we have space elevators is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2060.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Later or never 59.1%

Leader of 4 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Mar 10, 24, 3:38 AM UTCJan 1, 60, 3:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

A space elevator is currently conceived as a cable fixed to the equator and reaching into space.

A counterweight at the upper end keeps the center of mass well above geostationary orbit level.
This produces enough upward centrifugal force from planet's rotation to fully counter the downward gravity, keeping the cable upright and taut.
With the tether deployed, climbers (crawlers) could repeatedly climb up and down the tether by mechanical means, releasing their cargo to and from orbit for a lower cost than sending shuttles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator
This market resolves true when such transportation system is first constructed in any planet or natural satellite.