Hong Kong to change its HK$ peg away from USD by end of 2026?
Foreign ExchangeOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineChina3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.1%
Forecasters
40
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleAug 3, 24, 7:21 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the annualized growth rate in Hong Kong Real GDP exceed 1.1% in Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill the year-over-year change in the Hong Kong Consumer Price Index exceed 1.4% in December 2026?
ForecastExWill the year-over-year change in the Hong Kong Consumer Price Index exceed 0.4% in December 2026?
ForecastExHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
PolymarketLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
PolymarketPrecipitation in Hong Kong in September?
PolymarketRules
Recently there have been efforts by countries including China to move away from the USD as the global reserve currency, especially given the great power the US has in order to sanction Russia.
- Hong Kong currently pegs the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) to a band to the US Dollar (USD) only.
- This market resolves to YES if by the end of 2026, Hong Kong changes its peg to another currency (the Chinese Yuan, Euro, or other), or if it changes its peg to a basket of currencies (even if that basket contains the USD).
- If the peg is removed, and the HKD freely floats, this market resolves to YES.
- If Hong Kong changes the peg, but it remains as a peg to the USD and only the USD, that does NOT count as resolving the market to YES.
- If the peg remains on USD until the end of 2026, this market resolves to NO.
Open markets
Foreign ExchangePOLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-5.0pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6M
- 24h Vol
- $20.3K
KALSHIEURUSD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- Above 1.14996%
- Above 1.15195%
- Above 1.15392%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $17.4K
- 24h Vol
- $17.4K
KALSHIEUR/USD price range on Sep 8, 2026 at 10am EDT?
- 1.16200 to 1.1639968%
- 1.16000 to 1.1619924%
- 1.16400 to 1.1659913%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.2K
- 24h Vol
- $8.1K
KALSHIUSD/JPY price on Sep 8, 2026 at 10am EDT?
- 154.000 to 154.24974%
- 153.500 to 153.74944%
- 153.750 to 153.99934%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.8K
- 24h Vol
- $7.6K
POLYMARKETUSD x Iranian rials End of September?
- 2.2M+-10.0pt80.6%
- 2.1-2.2M+6.5pt12.2%
- 2.0-2.1M+1.0pt3.1%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ 99.50+41.3pt100%
- ↓ 99.00+32.5pt100%
- ↓ 99.50100%
+17 more outcomes
- NZDUSD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USDCAD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USD x Iranian rials End of September? (Higher Strikes)
- Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
- USDCHF price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- What will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?
- AUDUSD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USDMXN price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USD/BRL high in 2026
- USD x Iranian rials End of December?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Hong Kong to change its HK$ peg away from USD by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Hong Kong to change its HK$ peg away from USD by end of 2026? resolve?
- Hong Kong to change its HK$ peg away from USD by end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Hong Kong to change its HK$ peg away from USD by end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Recently there have been efforts by countries including China to move away from the USD as the global reserve currency, especially given the great power the US has in order to sanction Russia.