Current community forecast
11.59pm ET July 15 2026 100%+1.1ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
77
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 days ago
StaleMay 18, 26, 3:17 AMJul 8, 26, 5:02 AM
Probability Timeline
11.59pm ET May 31 20264%
11.59pm ET June 7 20269.6%
11.59pm ET June 15 20261%
11.59pm ET June 22 202610%
11.59pm ET June 30 20261.7%
11.59pm ET July 7 20260%
11.59pm ET July 15 2026100%
11.59pm ET July 23 2026100%
11.59pm ET July 31 2026100%
11.59pm ET December 31 2026100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· 11.59pm ET July 15 2026
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Polymarket
GPT-5.6 released by which date?
2.3 ptsClosed
+0.3pt100%
+0.8pt100%
+0.4pt100%
+17 more outcomes
44 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$4.3M
24h Vol$15.1K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
GPT 5.6 release date?
Closed
0%
0%
0%
+2 more outcomes
Community forecast85 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Kalshi
When will OpenAI release GPT-5.6?
1.0 ptsClosed
Resolved
Before Jul 10, 2026 (99%)
+1.0pt99%
99%
99%
+11 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$795K
24h Vol$93.4K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2.
- (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
- Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market.
- Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.8k99.7%POLYMARKETGPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026? — YesSomber-Ice18d ago
POLYMARKETGPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026? — YesSomber-Ice18d ago$1.3k99.0%KALSHIBefore Jul 10, 2026 — Yes19d ago
KALSHIBefore Jul 10, 2026 — Yes19d ago$2.0k99.0%KALSHIBefore Jul 9, 2026 — No19d ago
KALSHIBefore Jul 9, 2026 — No19d ago$1.2k93.3%POLYMARKETGPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026? — Nothoodr20d ago
POLYMARKETGPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026? — Nothoodr20d ago$1.1k99.9%POLYMARKETGPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? — Noblunderbot21d ago
POLYMARKETGPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? — Noblunderbot21d ago$1.1k63.3%POLYMARKETGPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? — NoStraddleSeller22d ago
POLYMARKETGPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? — NoStraddleSeller22d ago$2.9k98.1%POLYMARKETGPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? — Nopulgarcito2323d ago
POLYMARKETGPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? — Nopulgarcito2323d ago$13.2k99.9%POLYMARKETGPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? — NoThe-Joker24d ago
POLYMARKETGPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? — NoThe-Joker24d agoVolume trend
$0.69Jul 82d of dataJul 9
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2.
- (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
- Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market.
- Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.