Current implied probability
Claude 9%+2.0%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$6.1K
Liquidity
$8.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 7.0%
Spread
40.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jul 20, 26, 4:00 PMJul 27, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Claude9%
Volume trend
$6.1kJul 203d of dataJul 22
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If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Jul 27, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- If Qwen is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Jul 27, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If ChatGPT is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Jul 27, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Grok is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Jul 27, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.