Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)
PoliticsOne-OffElectionSportsSoccerLatin America7dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastLula 96.5%+5.1ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Feb 26, 26, 12:41 PMAug 4, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Lula97%
Volume trend
$50Jul 143d of dataJul 28
Related Markets
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
$1.6KEduardo Paes: 94%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
$1.5KLula da Silva 5-10%: 41%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Bahia Governor Election Winner
$951.6Jerônimo Rodrigues: 51%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
$137Lula da Silva, 10-15%: 29%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held
$20.9PL: 80%KALSHI
KALSHI
Argentina presidential election winner?
$0Javier Milei: 64%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Kalshi, Polymarket win pause against Minnesota's prediction market banCoindesk
Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News%20Abstract%20Cryptocurrency.%20With%20a%20dark%20background%20and%20a%20world%20map-min.jpg)
Polymarket odds: Lula leads Brazil 2026 race at 61.5% after 12pp jumpBlockchain.News
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot tops Israel PM market at 42.7% on $26.9MBlockchain.NewsPolymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as 2028 field stays fragmentedBlockchain.NewsRules
At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.
- Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
- Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
- The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
- If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.