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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)
Manifold Markets

Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)

PoliticsOne-OffElectionSportsSoccerLatin America1mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Lula 85.9%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters

7

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Stale
Feb 26, 26, 12:41 PMAug 4, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Lula86%

Rules

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Manifold Markets
  • Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
  • Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
  • The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
  • If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,767.61+1.84%SolanaSOL$65.16+1.43%EthereumETH$1,656.56+1.23%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.18%XRPXRP$1.12+0.40%BNBBNB$598.88+2.03%

Related News

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Rules

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Manifold Markets
  • Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
  • Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
  • The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
  • If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.