Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)
PoliticsOne-OffElectionSportsSoccerLatin America7dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastLula 96.5%+5.1ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Feb 26, 26, 12:41 PMAug 4, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Lula97%
Volume trend
$50Jul 143d of dataJul 28
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At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.
- Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
- Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
- The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
- If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.