Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:15 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 56%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 14, 25, 7:35 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a blockchain‑ (or similar‑technology‑) based decentralized marketplace for buying and selling compute resources achieves “scaled usage” in any 30‑consecutive‑day window ending before January 1, 2031, by meeting at least 3 of the following 5 criteria:
- Money (GMV): Buyer‑to‑provider payments settled by the marketplace’s smart contracts total ≥ $25,000,000 in that 30‑day window (USD‑equivalent at time of settlement).
- Only payments tied to completed/active compute jobs count; pure token swaps, grants, staking rewards, or emissions do not count.
- Delivered compute (FLOP·s, pick one precision class): Aggregate delivered compute (summed across all jobs in the window) is ≥ 1,000 ZFLOP·s at FP16/BF16, or ≥ 2,000 ZFLOP·s at FP8.
- How to measure: For each job, use the vendor‑published peak TFLOP/s for the GPU model at the relevant precision class × job duration (seconds) × the job’s reported average utilization (if available; otherwise assume 100% only if the network provides no lower utilization metric).
- Sum across jobs.
