Avengers: Doomsday V Dune: Messiah! Which one will "blink"? Both are currently dated Dec 18, 2026 - release date in USA.
Entertainment3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNeither 98.8%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.2 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleSep 3, 25, 7:29 AM UTCDec 18, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Which movie will change its USA release date from December 18, 2026?
- the named outcome (Marvel Studios, directed by the Russo Brothers, starring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom) and the named outcome (Warner Bros., directed by Denis Villeneuve, starring Timothée Chalamet) are both set to release on December 18, 2026, creating a potential “Dunesday” clash.
- Which studio will “blink” and move their release date to avoid competition? Historically, studios avoid such clashes to maximize box office potential, but the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon showed that two blockbusters can coexist.
- Factors like Villeneuve’s commitment to a James Bond film or Disney’s dominance with Marvel may influence the outcome.
- Resolution criteria
- This resolves to the single option that correctly describes what happens to the U.S. wide theatrical release dates relative to Friday, December 18, 2026:
Open markets
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+2 more outcomes
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KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
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- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
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- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
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- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Avengers: Doomsday V Dune: Messiah! Which one will "blink"? Both are currently dated Dec 18, 2026 - release date in USA.?
- Manifold Markets prices Neither at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Avengers: Doomsday V Dune: Messiah! Which one will "blink"? Both are currently dated Dec 18, 2026 - release date in USA. resolve?
- Avengers: Doomsday V Dune: Messiah! Which one will "blink"? Both are currently dated Dec 18, 2026 - release date in USA. is scheduled to resolve on December 18, 2026.
- How is Avengers: Doomsday V Dune: Messiah! Which one will "blink"? Both are currently dated Dec 18, 2026 - release date in USA. settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Which movie will change its USA release date from December 18, 2026?