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An American quickly has at least 30 children in a 2 year interval, anytime through 2028

One-OffSociety & Culture2y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 86.8%

Forecasters

13

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Sep 26, 23, 8:01 PM UTCJan 2, 29, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

They must be American and living in the USA, reported by US media.

They must have multiple children via wives/surrogates/etc such that there is a time interval of 2 years such that there are at least 30 children born within it.
The person of interest can be the father or mother, as long as the children are substantially their genetic children (some minor genetic modification may be allowed)
e.g. this story, where through surrogates, they have a huge number of children with birthdays just a few months apart: - children ages: Mustafa, 19 months; Mariam, 18 months; Ayrin, 18 months; Alisa, 18 months; Hasan, 17 months; Judi, 17 months; Harper, 16 months; Teresa, 16 months; Huseyin, 16 months and Anna, 15 months.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-10934703/Russian-woman-21-babies-Turkish-millionaire-devastated-arrest.html
[link preview]

Open markets

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40-64-0.5pt45.5%
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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for An American quickly has at least 30 children in a 2 year interval, anytime through 2028?: Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 9, 2026.
When does An American quickly has at least 30 children in a 2 year interval, anytime through 2028 resolve?: An American quickly has at least 30 children in a 2 year interval, anytime through 2028 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2029.
How is An American quickly has at least 30 children in a 2 year interval, anytime through 2028 settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: They must be American and living in the USA, reported by US media.

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