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An American quickly has at least 50 children in a 3 year interval, anytime through 2031

One-OffSociety & Culture Health & Medicine5y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 56%

Forecasters

4

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Sep 26, 23, 8:02 PM UTCJan 2, 32, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

They must be American and living in the USA, reported by US media.

They must have multiple children via wives/surrogates/etc such that there is a time interval of 3 years such that there are at least 50 children born within it.
The person of interest can be the father or mother, as long as the children are substantially their genetic children (some minor genetic modification may be allowed)
e.g. this story, where through surrogates, they have a huge number of children with birthdays just a few months apart: - children ages: Mustafa, 19 months; Mariam, 18 months; Ayrin, 18 months; Alisa, 18 months; Hasan, 17 months; Judi, 17 months; Harper, 16 months; Teresa, 16 months; Huseyin, 16 months and Anna, 15 months.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-10934703/Russian-woman-21-babies-Turkish-millionaire-devastated-arrest.html
[link preview]

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for An American quickly has at least 50 children in a 3 year interval, anytime through 2031?: Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of September 9, 2026.
When does An American quickly has at least 50 children in a 3 year interval, anytime through 2031 resolve?: An American quickly has at least 50 children in a 3 year interval, anytime through 2031 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2032.
How is An American quickly has at least 50 children in a 3 year interval, anytime through 2031 settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: They must be American and living in the USA, reported by US media.

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