Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.8%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 47 minutes ago
LaggingAug 3, 25, 11:20 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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By EOY 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full movie based on the user's algorithmically observed preferences?
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on or before December 31, 2026, a publicly documented demonstration confirms that an AI system is capable of generating a 90-minute high-quality movie from a single natural language prompt.
- ✅ To qualify as “Yes”:
- The AI must generate a coherent and watchable 90-minute film in response to a simple prompt such as:
- “Create a 90-minute Star Trek and Star Wars crossover where Captain Kirk and Han Solo join forces to stop a galactic threat.
- Include space battles, humor, and advanced technology from both universes.”
- The film must be comparable to a big-budget studio production in:
