Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 25, 2026, 1:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastNo 93%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 days ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 11:58 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes7%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FutuurBest overall85% match · auto | Low | 98% | — | $0 | $749.1 | 26 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 93% | — | — | — | 2 days ago |
Also available on Futuur
Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?
5mo
98%
2%
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$134.2
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$139Jul 114d of dataJul 25
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.