Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.8%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleDec 2, 25, 1:28 AM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
[Metaculus] Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?
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PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that the United Kingdom has at least 10 working small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) units before January 1st 2040.
- For this market:
- “SMR” definition:
- A reactor counts as an SMR if its electrical capacity is ≤ 300 MWe, in line with common IAEA / industry definitions, or if it is explicitly described as a “small modular reactor” (or “advanced modular reactor”) by the UK government, the operator, or major international nuclear bodies.
- Only fission reactors count.
- Fusion devices do not count.
