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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots received after Election Day?
Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots received after Election Day?

Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots received after Election Day?

2.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics1mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 79%+2.0%
Market quality

49 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$56.3

Liquidity

$529.9

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

79.0% / 80.0%

Spread

1.3%

Tight spread
Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Feb 26, 26, 3:00 PMAug 1, 26, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes79%

PolymarketAlso available on Polymarket

SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?

SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?

7.0%1mo
Yes
Yes
-0.1%74%
No
No
+0.1%27%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$40.8K
24h Vol$19.3
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Rules

If the Supreme Court, in Watson v.

Kalshi
  • Republican National Committee, rules before Aug 1, 2026 that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received (and counted) after Election Day, then the market resolves to Yes.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Rules

If the Supreme Court, in Watson v.

Kalshi
  • Republican National Committee, rules before Aug 1, 2026 that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received (and counted) after Election Day, then the market resolves to Yes.