KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeThis market resolved: Above 4.2% (76%)
Resolved: Jun 5, 2026, 2:13 PM
Winning Outcome
Above 4.2%
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
71%
ConsensusCurrent implied probabilityAbove 4.2% 76%+4.0%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$574.8
Liquidity
$1.7K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
73.0% / 80.0%
Spread
9.6%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 8 days ago
StaleMay 8, 26, 7:00 PMJun 5, 26, 12:29 PM
Probability Timeline
Above 4.1%95%
Above 4.4%8%
Above 4.3%45%
Above 4.0%99%
Above 4.2%70%
Above 4.5%1%
76%
98%
8%
45%
4%
1%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
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Rules
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.3% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.4% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.