KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityAbove 4.1% 85%+3.0%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$52.2
Liquidity
$196.3
Low liquidityBid / Ask
86.0% / 87.0%
Spread
1.2%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jun 5, 26, 4:45 PMJul 2, 26, 12:29 PM
Trends
Selected outcome
Above 4.1%85%
Related Markets
Unemployment in October
$6.2Above 3.7%: 98%KALSHI
KALSHIUnemployment in July
$4.5Above 4.4%: 15%KALSHI
KALSHIUnemployment in September
$0.6Above 4.2%: 56%KALSHI
KALSHI
Will the May Jobs report be revised upwards in June?
$65Yes: 46.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
How many jobs added in June?
$0100k – 150k: 44%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US recession by end of 2026?
$3.7KYes: 20%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Rules
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.3% in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.4% in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.