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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Economy
  3. Unemployment in July
Unemployment in July

Unemployment in July

EconomyMonthly1mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Above 4.4%
Above 4.4% 15%
Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality

32 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$4.5

Liquidity

$15.7

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

- / 24.0%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Jun 6, 26, 5:10 PMAug 7, 26, 12:29 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Above 3.7%
Above 3.7%
0%

Selected outcome

Above 4.4%15%

Rules

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.8% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Related Markets

Unemployment in June

Unemployment in June

$49.9
Above 4.1%: 85%KalshiKALSHI
Unemployment in October

Unemployment in October

$6.2
Above 3.7%: 98%KalshiKALSHI
Unemployment in November

Unemployment in November

$0.9
Above 4.3%: 54%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

Will the May Jobs report be revised upwards in June?

$65
Yes: 46.5%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
How many jobs added in June?

How many jobs added in June?

$0
<0: 43%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

$3.8K
Yes: 20%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,915.79+2.80%EthereumETH$1,659.74+2.47%SolanaSOL$65.21+2.39%BNBBNB$600.62+2.73%XRPXRP$1.12+1.03%DogecoinDOGE$0.0851+2.02%

Rules

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.8% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.2% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.