KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Transgender 97%Leader of 40 outcomes
Transgender 97%Market quality
41 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$3.3K
Open interest
$3.1K
Medium open interestSpread
22.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Oct 5, 26, 4:00 AM UTCOct 12, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will Trump say during his remarks at Anduril Industries?
KalshiWhat will Trump say during his rally in Nebraska?
KalshiWhat will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?
PolymarketWhat will Trump say in October?
KalshiWhat countries will Trump say in October?
KalshiWhat will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)
PolymarketRules
If Save America Act, or a plural or possessive form of Save America Act, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationPBSthe President of the United StatesCBSNBCBloombergAxiosCNNReutersThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPoliticoThe New York Times
- Payout criteria The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social). The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count. Grammatical/tense inflections.
Rules for each outcome
- Transgender
- If Transgender, or a plural or possessive form of Transgender, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Save America Act
- If Save America Act, or a plural or possessive form of Save America Act, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Dividend / Stimulus
- If Dividend / Stimulus, or a plural or possessive form of Dividend / Stimulus, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Sleepy Joe
- If Sleepy Joe, or a plural or possessive form of Sleepy Joe, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Voter ID
- If Voter ID, or a plural or possessive form of Voter ID, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Barack Hussein Obama
- If Barack Hussein Obama, or a plural or possessive form of Barack Hussein Obama, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Socialist / Socialism
- If Socialist / Socialism, or a plural or possessive form of Socialist / Socialism, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Blockade
- If Blockade, or a plural or possessive form of Blockade, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kamala
- If Kamala, or a plural or possessive form of Kamala, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Canada / Canadian
- If Canada / Canadian, or a plural or possessive form of Canada / Canadian, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Superintelligence / Super Intelligence
- If Superintelligence / Super Intelligence, or a plural or possessive form of Superintelligence / Super Intelligence, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Golf / Golfer / Golfing
- If Golf / Golfer / Golfing, or a plural or possessive form of Golf / Golfer / Golfing, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Landslide
- If Landslide, or a plural or possessive form of Landslide, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ukraine
- If Ukraine, or a plural or possessive form of Ukraine, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Rigged Election / Stolen Election
- If Rigged Election / Stolen Election, or a plural or possessive form of Rigged Election / Stolen Election, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome
- If TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome, or a plural or possessive form of TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Melania
- If Melania, or a plural or possessive form of Melania, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Steel
- If Steel, or a plural or possessive form of Steel, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Who are you with / Where are you from
- If Who are you with / Where are you from, or a plural or possessive form of Who are you with / Where are you from, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Stupid Question
- If Stupid Question, or a plural or possessive form of Stupid Question, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Autopen / Auto Pen
- If Autopen / Auto Pen, or a plural or possessive form of Autopen / Auto Pen, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cuba / Cuban
- If Cuba / Cuban, or a plural or possessive form of Cuba / Cuban, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Zohran / Mamdani
- If Zohran / Mamdani, or a plural or possessive form of Zohran / Mamdani, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis
- If Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, or a plural or possessive form of Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- UFO / UAP
- If UFO / UAP, or a plural or possessive form of UFO / UAP, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Nobel
- If Nobel, or a plural or possessive form of Nobel, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Moon
- If Moon, or a plural or possessive form of Moon, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Soleimani
- If Soleimani, or a plural or possessive form of Soleimani, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Third Term
- If Third Term, or a plural or possessive form of Third Term, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Antifa
- If Antifa, or a plural or possessive form of Antifa, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Bibi / Netanyahu
- If Bibi / Netanyahu, or a plural or possessive form of Bibi / Netanyahu, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Prediction Market / Predictive Market
- If Prediction Market / Predictive Market, or a plural or possessive form of Prediction Market / Predictive Market, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Golden Dome
- If Golden Dome, or a plural or possessive form of Golden Dome, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Make Iran Great Again
- If Make Iran Great Again, or a plural or possessive form of Make Iran Great Again, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Uranium
- If Uranium, or a plural or possessive form of Uranium, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Epstein
- If Epstein, or a plural or possessive form of Epstein, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Crypto / Bitcoin
- If Crypto / Bitcoin, or a plural or possessive form of Crypto / Bitcoin, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Peace in the Middle East
- If Peace in the Middle East, or a plural or possessive form of Peace in the Middle East, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ceasefire
- If Ceasefire, or a plural or possessive form of Ceasefire, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cybersecurity / Cyber Security
- If Cybersecurity / Cyber Security, or a plural or possessive form of Cybersecurity / Cyber Security, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.