KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Jared / Isaacman (99%)
Resolved: Aug 28, 2026, 6:21 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Jared / Isaacman
At 7 days out
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At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 28, 2026, 5:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Biden37%
Elon / Musk16%
Space Force89%
Russia / Russian1%
Nuclear66%
China / Chinese58%
Afford / Affordable / Affordability13%
Democrat67%
Iran25%
MAGA / Make America Great Again19%
Election23%
Jared / Isaacman99%
Hottest62%
Data Center5%
UFO / UAP12%
Golden Age61%
Alien16%
Starlink11%
Mars86%
Stock Market27%
Fake News22%
ISS / International Space Station1%
Moon Base1%
Event does not qualify2%
SpaceX23%
Manufacture / Manufacturing1%
AI / Artificial Intelligence1%
Houston42%
Lake of America / Lake America17%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline29%
Apollo81%
First Term69%
Talarico / Talafreako15%
NuclearLost
MoonLost
Jared / IsaacmanWon
First TermLost
Golden AgeLost
DemocratLost
Space ForceLost
MarsLost
Stock MarketLost
ApolloLost
ElectionLost
ISS / International Space StationLost
HoustonLost
Moon BaseLost
Event does not qualifyLost
Crypto / BitcoinLost
China / ChineseLost
SpaceXLost
AI / Artificial IntelligenceLost
Lake of America / Lake AmericaLost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the Remarks at NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Remarks at NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.