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Data as of Nov 14, 2026, 4:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Election / Midterm · —
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Stored price
Election / Midterm 83.5%Leader of 17 outcomes
Election / Midterm 83.5%Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.5K
Open interest
$5.2K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Election / MidtermSpread
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Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Nov 13, 26, 10:15 PM UTCNov 28, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Election / Midterm
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will John Fetterman say during Fox News: Saturday in America?
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Manifold MarketsWhat will happen the Fox News Empire when Rupert Murdoch dies?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Republican Speaker/Minority Leader after Mike Johnson?
Manifold MarketsMike Johnson out as Speaker by which date?
PolymarketRules
If Mike Johnson says Election / Midterm as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSThe Washington PostAxiosCNNReutersThe New York Timesthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). Mike Johnson speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.
Rules for each outcome
- Election / Midterm
- If Mike Johnson says Election / Midterm as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrat
- If Mike Johnson says Democrat as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Socialism / Socialist
- If Mike Johnson says Socialism / Socialist as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Jeffries
- If Mike Johnson says Jeffries as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Shutdown / Shut Down
- If Mike Johnson says Shutdown / Shut Down as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tax Cut / Cut Tax
- If Mike Johnson says Tax Cut / Cut Tax as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Border
- If Mike Johnson says Border as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Afford / Affordable / Affordability
- If Mike Johnson says Afford / Affordable / Affordability as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Iran / Iranian
- If Mike Johnson says Iran / Iranian as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- China / Chinese
- If Mike Johnson says China / Chinese as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump (3+ times)
- If Mike Johnson says Trump (3+ times) as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline
- If Mike Johnson says Oil / Gas / Gasoline as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Poll / Pollster
- If Mike Johnson says Poll / Pollster as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Inflation
- If Mike Johnson says Inflation as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- AI / Artificial Intelligence
- If Mike Johnson says AI / Artificial Intelligence as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Healthcare
- If Mike Johnson says Healthcare as part of Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Event does not qualify
- If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.