KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Trump (3+ times) (99%)
Resolved: Sep 29, 2026, 2:43 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Trump (3+ times)
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 29, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
AI / Artificial Intelligence1%
Trump (3+ times)99%
Ceasefire1%
Democrat1%
2028 / Campaign1%
Tariff1%
Israel / Israeli28%
Iran / Iranian94%
Cuba / Cuban99%
China / Chinese99%
Nuclear0%
NATO99%
Russia / Russian1%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline48%
Ukraine / Ukrainian1%
Event does not qualify1%
Trump (3+ times)Won
Israel / IsraeliLost
Iran / IranianLost
Cuba / CubanLost
China / ChineseLost
NuclearLost
NATOLost
Oil / Gas / GasolineLost
AI / Artificial IntelligenceLost
CeasefireLost
DemocratLost
2028 / CampaignLost
TariffLost
Russia / RussianLost
Ukraine / UkrainianLost
Event does not qualifyLost
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Marco Rubio says the named outcome as part of Fox News: Hannity originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the Fox News: Hannity originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Fox News: Hannity originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Marco Rubio speaking in an official capacity.