Current implied probability
Haley Stevens 84%-2.0%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$262.2
Liquidity
$7.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
84.0% / 86.0%
Spread
2.4%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Apr 16, 26, 2:00 PMAug 4, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Haley Stevens84%
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If Mallory McMorrow finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place) For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order
- In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities).
- Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists.
- Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received.
- If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.