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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Margin of victory in the KY-04 Republican primary?
Margin of victory in the KY-04 Republican primary?

Margin of victory in the KY-04 Republican primary?

PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection
KalshiKalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

This market resolved: Ed Gallrein, 5-10% (95%)

Resolved: Jun 9, 2026, 12:56 AM

Winning Outcome

Ed Gallrein, 5-10%

At 7 days out

—

At 24 hours out

—

Current implied probability
Ed Gallrein, 10-15%
Ed Gallrein, 10-15% 1%
Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$73.9

Liquidity

$20K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

0.3% / 0.9%

Spread

200.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Stale
Apr 1, 26, 2:00 PMMay 19, 27, 2:00 PM

Probability Timeline

Thomas Massie, 5-10%0%
Thomas Massie, 10-15%0%
Ed Gallrein, 10-15%1%
Ed Gallrein, 0-5%0%
Ed Gallrein, 15-20%0%
0%25%50%75%100%Jun 7Jun 7Jun 8
Outcome24hChance
Ed Gallrein, 10-15%
Ed Gallrein, 10-15%
1%
Ed Gallrein, 5-10%
Ed Gallrein, 5-10%
95%
Ed Gallrein, 0-5%
Ed Gallrein, 0-5%
0%
Ed Gallrein, ≥20%
Ed Gallrein, ≥20%
0%
Ed Gallrein, 15-20%
Ed Gallrein, 15-20%
0%
Thomas Massie, 0-5%
Thomas Massie, 0-5%
0%

This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.

PolymarketAlso available on Polymarket

KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory

KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory

Closed
Gallrein 9%+
Gallrein 9%+
-0.1%99%
Gallrein 6-9%
Gallrein 6-9%
+0.1%1%
Massie 6%+
Massie 6%+
0%

+5 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$192.7K
24h Vol$75
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Rules

If the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary falls within 20% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Gallrein minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein wins, or the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Rules

If the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary falls within 20% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ed Gallrein minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ed Gallrein if Ed Gallrein wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ed Gallrein loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein wins, or the electoral votes received by Ed Gallrein minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ed Gallrein does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.