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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Alabama Republican Senate runoff margin of victory?
Alabama Republican Senate runoff margin of victory?

Alabama Republican Senate runoff margin of victory?

PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1y
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Barry Moore, ≥15%
Barry Moore, ≥15% 21%
Leader of 12 outcomes
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$160.2

Liquidity

$299.5

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

21.0% / 22.0%

Spread

4.8%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Jun 8, 26, 5:00 PMJun 16, 27, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Barry Moore, ≥15%21%

Rules

If the margin of victory for Barry Moore in the 2026 Alabama Republican Senate runoff falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Barry Moore minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Barry Moore if Barry Moore wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Barry Moore loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Barry Moore minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Barry Moore if Barry Moore wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Barry Moore loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Barry Moore minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Barry Moore wins, or the electoral votes received by Barry Moore minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Barry Moore does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.

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Rules

If the margin of victory for Barry Moore in the 2026 Alabama Republican Senate runoff falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Barry Moore minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Barry Moore if Barry Moore wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Barry Moore loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Barry Moore minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Barry Moore if Barry Moore wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Barry Moore loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Barry Moore minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Barry Moore wins, or the electoral votes received by Barry Moore minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Barry Moore does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.