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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Maine Democratic Governor primary: margin of victory (final round)
Maine Democratic Governor primary: margin of victory (final round)

Maine Democratic Governor primary: margin of victory (final round)

PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1y
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Shenna Bellows wins
Shenna Bellows wins 20%
Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$44.9

Liquidity

$41.6

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

19.0% / 20.0%

Spread

5.3%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Jun 10, 26, 3:00 PMNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Shenna Bellows wins20%

Rules

If the margin of victory for Hannah Pingree in the final round of the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Hannah Pingree minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Hannah Pingree if Hannah Pingree wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Hannah Pingree loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Hannah Pingree minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Hannah Pingree if Hannah Pingree wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Hannah Pingree loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Hannah Pingree minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Hannah Pingree wins, or the electoral votes received by Hannah Pingree minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Hannah Pingree does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.

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Rules

If the margin of victory for Hannah Pingree in the final round of the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Hannah Pingree minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Hannah Pingree if Hannah Pingree wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Hannah Pingree loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Hannah Pingree minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Hannah Pingree if Hannah Pingree wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Hannah Pingree loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Hannah Pingree minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Hannah Pingree wins, or the electoral votes received by Hannah Pingree minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Hannah Pingree does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.