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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory
Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory

Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory

3.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics10mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Karen Bass, 4-8%
Karen Bass, 4-8% 99%+3.0%
Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality

79 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$1.1K

Liquidity

$2.8K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

99.0% / 100.0%

Spread

1.0%

Tight spread
Market data

Updated 7 minutes ago

Apr 27, 26, 7:00 PMApr 28, 27, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Karen Bass, 4-8%99%

Rules

If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 0% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Karen Bass minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Karen Bass minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Karen Bass wins, or the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Karen Bass does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.

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Rules

If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 0% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Karen Bass minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Karen Bass minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Karen Bass wins, or the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Karen Bass does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.