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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. New Mexico Republican Governor primary margin of victory?
New Mexico Republican Governor primary margin of victory?

New Mexico Republican Governor primary margin of victory?

1.0% (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionLatin America11mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Gregg Hull, 12-15%
Gregg Hull, 12-15% 3%+1.0%
Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$1.2

Liquidity

$194.2

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

1.0% / 3.0%

Spread

200.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Jun 2, 26, 7:45 PMJun 2, 27, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Gregg Hull, 12-15%3%

Rules

If the margin of victory for Gregg Hull in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Gregg Hull minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Gregg Hull if Gregg Hull wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Gregg Hull loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Gregg Hull minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Gregg Hull if Gregg Hull wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Gregg Hull loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Gregg Hull minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Gregg Hull wins, or the electoral votes received by Gregg Hull minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Gregg Hull does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.

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Rules

If the margin of victory for Gregg Hull in the 2026 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Gregg Hull minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Gregg Hull if Gregg Hull wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Gregg Hull loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Gregg Hull minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Gregg Hull if Gregg Hull wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Gregg Hull loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Gregg Hull minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Gregg Hull wins, or the electoral votes received by Gregg Hull minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Gregg Hull does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.