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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. California governor primary margin of victory?
California governor primary margin of victory?

California governor primary margin of victory?

7.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection11mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Xavier Becerra, 2-4%
Xavier Becerra, 2-4% 95%+7.0%
Leader of 18 outcomes
Market quality

49 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$13.3

Liquidity

$1K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

96.0% / 97.0%

Spread

1.0%

Tight spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

May 28, 26, 12:00 AMJun 2, 27, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Xavier Becerra, 2-4%95%

Rules

If the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 2%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Xavier Becerra minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Xavier Becerra if Xavier Becerra wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Xavier Becerra loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Xavier Becerra minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Xavier Becerra if Xavier Becerra wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Xavier Becerra loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Xavier Becerra minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Xavier Becerra wins, or the electoral votes received by Xavier Becerra minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Xavier Becerra does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.

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Rules

If the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 2%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Xavier Becerra minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Xavier Becerra if Xavier Becerra wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Xavier Becerra loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Xavier Becerra minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Xavier Becerra if Xavier Becerra wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Xavier Becerra loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Xavier Becerra minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Xavier Becerra wins, or the electoral votes received by Xavier Becerra minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Xavier Becerra does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.