KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Trump (3+ times) (99%)
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 1:53 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Trump (3+ times)
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 1, 2026, 1:11 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
AI / Artificial Intelligence1%
Ceasefire22%
Gaza / Palestine74%
October 725%
Deal / Settle44%
Trump (3+ times)33%
Hamas / Hezbollah69%
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation30%
Saudi72%
Zohran / Mamdani / Mayor16%
Iran / Iranian75%
Terrorist / Terrorism91%
Lebanon0%
Hormuz0%
Drone0%
Nuclear73%
Event does not qualify3%
Trump (3+ times)Won
Hamas / HezbollahLost
SaudiLost
Iran / IranianLost
Terrorist / TerrorismLost
AI / Artificial IntelligenceLost
CeasefireLost
Gaza / PalestineLost
October 7Lost
Deal / SettleLost
Negotiate / Negotiated / NegotiationLost
Zohran / Mamdani / MayorLost
LebanonLost
HormuzLost
DroneLost
NuclearLost
Event does not qualifyLost
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KalshiRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the Fox News: Hannity originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Fox News: Hannity originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Benjamin Netanyahu speaking in an official capacity.
