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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Arkansas's 3rd District margin of victory
Arkansas's 3rd District margin of victory

Arkansas's 3rd District margin of victory

One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection1y
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Republicans, 10+ pts
Republicans, 10+ pts 91%
Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality

40 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$55.9

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

90.3% / 97.0%

Spread

7.4%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

May 5, 26, 8:21 PMNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Republicans, 10+ pts91%

Rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S.

Kalshi
  • House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 3rd District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
  • No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.

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Ohio's 7th District margin of victory

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Rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S.

Kalshi
  • House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 3rd District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
  • No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.