KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAlex Karp 96%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$37
Liquidity
$1.7K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
49.0% / 58.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Apr 3, 26, 2:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Marc Andreessen58%
Volume trend
$37Jul 36d of dataJul 29
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If Sam Altman is on TBPN after April 03,2026 at 10:00AM and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Sam Altman appears solely in an advertisement, or solely via a prerecorded audioclip that was not recorded for purposes of TBPN (e.g., the host playing a portion of a speech or song excerpt by Sam Altman), the Payout Criterion is not satisfied.
- If Mark Zuckerberg is on TBPN after April 03,2026 at 10:00AM and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Mark Zuckerberg appears solely in an advertisement, or solely via a prerecorded audioclip that was not recorded for purposes of TBPN (e.g., the host playing a portion of a speech or song excerpt by Mark Zuckerberg), the Payout Criterion is not satisfied.
- If Satya Nadella is on TBPN after April 03,2026 at 10:00AM and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Satya Nadella appears solely in an advertisement, or solely via a prerecorded audioclip that was not recorded for purposes of TBPN (e.g., the host playing a portion of a speech or song excerpt by Satya Nadella), the Payout Criterion is not satisfied.