KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAt least 30 99%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.5K
Liquidity
$70.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.0% / 2.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jul 2, 26, 4:00 PMAug 4, 26, 4:45 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
At least 601%
Large trades
$1.3k31.0%KALSHIAt least 50 — Yes19d ago
KALSHIAt least 50 — Yes19d ago$1.7k95.0%KALSHIAt least 40 — Yes21d ago
KALSHIAt least 40 — Yes21d agoVolume trend
$2.5kJul 227d of dataJul 28
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KALSHIActive in these topics
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Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic normalization by July 31 at 1.85% YesBlockchain.NewsRules
If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 30 in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 40 in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 50 in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 60 in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 70 in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 80 in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.