KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: China / Chinese (99%)
Resolved: Sep 13, 2026, 5:57 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
China / Chinese
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
27%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 13, 2026, 5:27 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Afford / Affordable / Affordability0%
Healthcare80%
China / Chinese7%
Big Beautiful Bill55%
AI / Artificial Intelligence25%
Trump (3+ times)1%
Election / Midterm80%
Supreme Court0%
Democrat95%
Immigrant / Immigration24%
SAVE America Act / SAVE Act82%
Socialism / Socialist75%
Schumer0%
Event does not qualify1%
China / ChineseWon
Big Beautiful BillLost
AI / Artificial IntelligenceLost
Election / MidtermLost
DemocratLost
Afford / Affordable / AffordabilityLost
HealthcareLost
Trump (3+ times)Lost
Supreme CourtLost
Immigrant / ImmigrationLost
SAVE America Act / SAVE ActLost
Socialism / SocialistLost
SchumerLost
Event does not qualifyLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Mike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?
KalshiMike Johnson gone as House speaker before Nov 3 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House through the 2026 US Midterm elections?
FutuurWill Mike Johnson win the Louisiana 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExMike Johnson out as Speaker by which date?
PolymarketWill Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House through the 119th Congress?
PredictItRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the Meet the Press on Sep 13 using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Meet the Press on Sep 13 will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Mike Johnson speaking in an official capacity.