KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAbove 100 32%+11.0%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$7.7K
Liquidity
$9.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
23.0% / 35.0%
Spread
52.2%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jul 10, 26, 2:00 PMJul 21, 26, 1:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Above 10032%
Volume trend
$7.7kJul 104d of dataJul 13
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If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 50 from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026.
- The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 75 from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 100 from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 125 from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.