KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAbove 150 17%-8.0%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$66.3K
Liquidity
$118.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
16.0% / 19.0%
Spread
18.8%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 6, 26, 5:30 PMJul 14, 26, 1:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Above 15017%
Volume trend
$66.3kJul 68d of dataJul 13
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If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 100 from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026.
- The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 125 from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 150 from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 175 from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.