KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityAbove 2.5% 53%+2.0%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$3.5
Liquidity
$351.6
Low liquidityBid / Ask
44.0% / 56.0%
Spread
27.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Mar 24, 26, 2:00 PMJul 30, 26, 12:29 PM
Trends
Selected outcome
Above 2.5%53%
Also available on Polymarket
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
5.5%1mo
-9.0%26%
22%
18%
+4 more outcomes
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$6.4K
24h Vol$180.6
POLYMARKETRules
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data.
- The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q2 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release.
- Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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KALSHIRules
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data.
- The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q2 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release.
- Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes.