KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAbove 3.0% 8%-7.0%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.5K
Liquidity
$67.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 8.0%
Spread
14.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 27 minutes ago
May 11, 26, 2:30 PMJul 30, 26, 12:29 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Above 3.0%8%
Compare venues· 1.5–2.0%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 99% | +64pt | $4.5K | $67.7K | 27 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket100% match · auto | Medium | 35% | 0pt | $273 | $10.9K | 7 minutes ago | Open → |
 Futuur72% match · linked | Low | 37% | +2pt | $0 | $5.6K | 27 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless100% match · auto | Low | 35% | 0pt | $0 | $0 | 27 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
0.1%3d
+3.0%35%
28%
18%
+4 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$19.3K
24h Vol$273
POLYMARKETAlso available on Limitless
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
3d
34.9%
28%
17.8%
+4 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$1.2K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Futuur
US’ GDP growth rate for Q2- 2026
3d
37%
30%
20%
+1 more outcomes
44 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$50.9
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data.
- The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q2 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release.
- Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$4.5kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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KALSHIActive in these topics
Rules
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data.
- The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q2 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release.
- Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes.