KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Maintain current rate (1%)
Resolved: Jul 23, 2026, 1:51 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- Maintain current rate
- Recorded
- Jul 27, 2026, 5:43 AM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probabilityHike 1-25bps 90.5%+3.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2.6K
Liquidity
$8.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
- / 7.0%
Market data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleJun 2, 26, 5:00 PMJul 23, 26, 12:59 PM
Probability Timeline
Hike 1-25bps95%
Maintain current rate1%
0.9%
4.8%
90.5%
0.9%
2.9%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Hike 1-25bps
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 95% | — | $2.6K | $8.1K | 4 days ago | |
 PolymarketMost active71% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $14.4K | $0 | 3 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
South African Reserve Bank decision in July?
93.5 ptsClosed
Resolved
No Change (100%)
+99.4pt100%
-1.5pt0%
-0.3pt0%
+2 more outcomes
27 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$43.4K
24h Vol$14.4K
POLYMARKETRules
If the South African Reserve Bank takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at the July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank.
- For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count.
- If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No.
- Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
- The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2.6kJul 222d of dataJul 23
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If the South African Reserve Bank takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at the July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank.
- For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count.
- If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No.
- Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
- The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).