Will Trump’s 50% tariffs on Canada take effect August 19?
5.0% (24h)Trade PolicyOne-OffPoliticsUS Politics24d
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 35%-5.0%
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$4.8
Liquidity
$374.1
Low liquidityBid / Ask
36.0% / 41.0%
Spread
13.9%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jul 23, 26, 3:35 PMAug 20, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes35%
Volume trend
$5Jul 234d of dataJul 26
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If the additional 50% tariffs established by President Donald Trump’s three July 20, 2026 Section 338 proclamations begin applying to covered Canadian goods on August 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
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