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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. California Governor primary: 1st place
California Governor primary: 1st place

California Governor primary: 1st place

0.8% (24h)One-OffPoliticsElection11mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Steve Hilton
Steve Hilton 2%+0.8%
Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality

64 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$4K

Liquidity

$37.6K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

1.0% / 1.4%

Spread

40.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Feb 4, 26, 11:00 PMJun 2, 27, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Eric Swalwell
Eric Swalwell
0%
Matt Mahan
Matt Mahan
0%
Chad Bianco
Chad Bianco
0%
Tom Steyer
Tom Steyer
0%

Selected outcome

Steve Hilton2%

Rules

If Eric Swalwell finishes in 1st place in the 2026 California Governor primary election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This market resolves based solely on the primary election results, not any subsequent general election.
  • Ranking is determined by the specified counting method.
  • For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage.
  • For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place).
  • For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals.

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Rules

If Eric Swalwell finishes in 1st place in the 2026 California Governor primary election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This market resolves based solely on the primary election results, not any subsequent general election.
  • Ranking is determined by the specified counting method.
  • For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage.
  • For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place).
  • For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals.