Prediction Source Comparison
Compare matched prediction questions across trading markets and forecasting sources. See where probabilities align, where they diverge, and how methodology differs.
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
CoinRithm referenceFrance40%±7 ptsLargest outcome gap: Norway 8pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference |  Kalshi |  Rothera |  Manifold Markets+5 |  Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 40% | 40%-0.4% | 40% | 39% | 39%+0.4% |
| Spain | — | 21%-0.1% | 22% | 21% | 21%-0.2% |
| England | — | 21%+2.9% | 15% | 21%+1.6% | 21%+0.9% |
| Argentina | — | 18%+0.8% | 20% | 19%+1.6% | 18%+1.3% |
| Norway | — | 0%-1.2% | 8% | 0%-0.4% | 0%-5.9% |
| Switzerland | — | 0%-1.9% | 2% | 0%-2.8% | 0%-1.6% |
| Venue quality | 5 venues | 100$17.9M11 minutes ago | 77$4.1M9 minutes ago | 10 minutes ago | 100$23.6M1 minute ago |
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Saskatchewan Roughriders
CoinRithm referenceSaskatchewan Roughriders83%±3 ptsLargest outcome gap: Hamilton Tiger-Cats 4pt
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 83% | 80%-1.0% | 83%+0.0% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | — | 22%-12.0% | 18%-0.0% |
| Venue quality | 2 venues | 73$28.7K10 minutes ago | 73$10.4K16 minutes ago |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Largest outcome gap: Yes 3pt
| Outcome | Polymarket | Manifold Markets+1 |
|---|---|---|
| No | 83%-0.0% | 85% |
| Yes | 18%+0.0% | 15% |
| No | — | — |
| Yes | — | — |
| Venue quality | 89$289.9K16 minutes ago | 32 days ago |
Also on Manifold Markets: Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
The Odyssey: Rotten Tomatoes score
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Above 60 | 99% | — |
| Above 55 | 99% | — |
| Above 50 | 99% | — |
| 60+ | — | 99% |
| 70+ | — | 99%-0.1% |
| Above 70 | 98% | — |
| Venue quality | 89$28.5K11 minutes ago | 71$111.415 minutes ago |
"Evil Dead Burn" Rotten Tomatoes score?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Above 68 | 99%+2.0% | — |
| Above 45 | 99% | — |
| Above 65 | 99% | — |
| Above 50 | 99% | — |
| Above 55 | 99% | — |
| Above 60 | 99% | — |
| Venue quality | 73$57.8K1 minute ago | 68$1K16 minutes ago |
"Moana" Rotten Tomatoes score?
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Above 27 | 99% | — |
| Above 22 | 99% | — |
| Above 25 | 99% | — |
| Above 20 | 99% | — |
| 30+ | — | 99%+0.1% |
| Above 30 | 98%-1.0% | — |
| Venue quality | 73$102.1K1 minute ago | 52$570.415 minutes ago |
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
CoinRithm reference1.5–2.0%32%±4 pts
| Outcome | CoinRithm reference | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | — | 98% | — |
| Above 0.5% | — | 98% | — |
| Above 1.0% | — | 89% | — |
| Above 1.5% | — | 72%-1.0% | — |
| Above 2.0% | — | 59%+1.0% | — |
| 1.5–2.0% | 32% | — | 32%+4.0% |
| Venue quality | 2 venues | 64$512.211 minutes ago | 60$84.715 minutes ago |
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?
Largest outcome gap: No 3pt
| Outcome | Manifold Markets | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| No | 97% | 100% |
| Yes | 3% | 0% |
| Venue quality | 18 days ago | 60$120.512 days ago |
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?
Largest outcome gap: No Change 20pt
| Outcome | Polymarket | Manifold Markets |
|---|---|---|
| No Change | 100%+0.9% | 80% |
| Increase | 0%-0.7% | 17% |
| Decrease | 0%-0.1% | 2% |
| Venue quality | 49$5.6K25 days ago | 26 days ago |
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 [Polymarket]
Largest outcome gap: Gold 18pt
| Outcome | Manifold Markets | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 51% | 66%-0.5% |
| Gold | 32% | 14%-2.0% |
| Bitcoin | 17% | 17% |
| Venue quality | 20 days ago | 72$85.31 minute ago |
Showing 1 - 10 out of 848
...
Related reading
- How Prediction Market Probabilities Work (2026): Prices, Odds, and What They Really Mean
- Kalshi vs Polymarket (2026): Fees, Legality, Liquidity, and Who Each Is Best For
- Prediction Market Fees Comparison (2026): Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood, PredictIt, and More
- Best Prediction Markets in 2026: 10 Platforms Compared (Fees, Features & Who They're For)