PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 95%-0.1pt
Marktqualitat
79 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
2073,9 €
Liquidität
48.158,7 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
4.8% / 4.9%
Spread
0.1 pt
Enger SpreadKommentare
0
7d-Änderung
-1.4 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten
29. Mai 26, 13:14 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
PolymarketIran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
LimitlessWill Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
- A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
- The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
Offene Märkte
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+2 weitere Ergebnisse
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- 363.008,4 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
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POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 245.496,1 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 62,8 Mio. €
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
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- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026??
- Polymarket bewertet No mit 95% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? entschieden?
- Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Polymarket rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Wo wird Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? außerdem gelistet?
- Dieselbe Frage wird auch auf Futuur gelistet.