PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitJa 28%+0.1%
Marktqualitat
89 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
127.831,7 €
Liquidität
125.112,5 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
27.0% / 28.0%
Spread
3.7%
Mittlerer Spread7d-Änderung
+8.5%
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Minuten
2. Juli 26, 21:4930. Sept. 26, 0:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes28%
Plattformen vergleichen· No
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketDiese SeiteBeste insgesamt | Hoch | 73% | — | 127.831,7 € | 125.112,5 € | vor 18 Minuten | |
 Manifold Markets85% Übereinstimmung · auto | — | 97% | — | — | — | vorgestern | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Manifold Markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]
2Mon
96.6%
3.4%
Community-Prognose16 PrognostikerTyp: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRegeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Große Trades
$1.1k24.0%POLYMARKETYesTorn-Mythvor 10 Std.
POLYMARKETYesTorn-Mythvor 10 Std.$14.2k78.0%POLYMARKETNogrinder1011vor 23 Std.
POLYMARKETNogrinder1011vor 23 Std.$1.2k78.0%POLYMARKETNoback-in-whackvor 3 Tagen
POLYMARKETNoback-in-whackvor 3 Tagen$2.4k76.0%POLYMARKETNolinethvor 5 Tagen
POLYMARKETNolinethvor 5 Tagen$1.1k76.0%POLYMARKETNojustTvor 10 Tagen
POLYMARKETNojustTvor 10 Tagen$1.4k69.0%POLYMARKETNoAMikevor 16 Tagen
POLYMARKETNoAMikevor 16 Tagen$1.1k43.7%POLYMARKETNoGollumGekkovor 22 Tagen
POLYMARKETNoGollumGekkovor 22 TagenVolumentrend
$145.4k3. Juli24T Daten26. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
2,4 Mio. €July 18: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
744.106,2 €August 31: 62%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
528.293,4 €Ja: 16%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
250.089,3 €Before Sep 1, 2026: 11%
KALSHI
KALSHI
What will Benjamin Netanyahu say during Sunday Morning Futures?
103.710,3 €Event does not qualify: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26)
35.629,1 €Above 60: 7%KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.