Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 01.11.2026, 00:58 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Mittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
No release by November 30 · —
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
—
Gespeicherter Referenzwert
No release by November 30 33%Führend unter 32 Optionen
No release by November 30 33%Marktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
2168,9 €
Liquidität
11.895,1 €
Mittlere LiquiditätOpen Interest
1323,4 $
Geld / Brief
— / —
No release by November 30Spread
—
Kommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet28. Okt. 26, 21:52 UTC1. Dez. 26, 04:59 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Polymarket
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Mindestorder (Anteile):
- 5
- Preisschritt:
- 1 Prozentpunkte
- Gebühren:
- Nein
Größte Inhaber
Größte Inhaber werden geladen
Markttiefe · No release by November 30
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
—
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Grok Model (4.8+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
LimitlessWill "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public.
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
