PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 81%-1.0pt
Marktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
7915,4 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
18.0% / 20.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadKommentare
0
7d-Änderung
+1.5 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
8. Juli 26, 01:18 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBallistic missiles launched between India and China in 2026?
FutuurWhich cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?
PolymarketRocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketWill the Ukrainians get the German Taurus cruise missile before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
- Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
- The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 470.753,1 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für China ballistic missile launch by December 31??
- Polymarket bewertet No mit 81% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird China ballistic missile launch by December 31? entschieden?
- China ballistic missile launch by December 31? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird China ballistic missile launch by December 31? abgerechnet?
- Polymarket rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.