Warnung zur DatenqualitätNicht aussagekräftig bepreist
Daten vom 10.07.2026, 06:13 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-2
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Gavin Newsom 48.3%+0.1%Führend unter 32 Optionen
Marktqualitat
28 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
0 €
Liquidität
0 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
-
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten
24. Feb. 26, 14:411. Jan. 00, 0:01
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Gavin Newsom48%
Plattformen vergleichen· Gavin Newsom
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBeste insgesamt78% Übereinstimmung · auto | Mittel | 19% | 0pt | 992.951,4 € | 62 Mio. € | vor 11 Minuten | Öffnen → |
 Kalshi74% Übereinstimmung · auto | Mittel | 19% | 0pt | 342.588,8 € | 87,7 Mio. € | vor 6 Minuten | Öffnen → |
 Smarkets64% Übereinstimmung · verknüpft | Niedrig | 21% | +2pt | 0,9 € | 0 € | vor 3 Minuten | Öffnen → |
 MyriadDiese Seite | Niedrig | 48% | +29pt | 0 € | 0 € | vor 3 Minuten | |
 Limitless78% Übereinstimmung · verknüpft | Niedrig | 23% | +4pt | 0 € | 0 € | vor 4 Minuten | Öffnen → |
 Manifold Markets78% Übereinstimmung · verknüpft | — | 20% | +1pt | — | — | vor 30 Tagen | Öffnen → |
| Manifold Markets78% Übereinstimmung · verknüpft | — | 22% | +3pt | — | — | vorgestern | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2J
-0.4%19%
-0.9%14%
-2.1%10%
+125 weitere Ergebnisse
73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen1,1 Mrd. €
24h-Volumen992.951,4 €
POLYMARKETAuch verfügbar auf Manifold Markets
Democratic Nominee for 2028 Presidential Election
1J
7.1%
20%
6%
+14 weitere Ergebnisse
Community-Prognose21 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAuch verfügbar auf Manifold Markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2J
-0.1%21.7%
+0.6%11.7%
-0.1%6.5%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
Community-Prognose13 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAuch verfügbar auf Limitless
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2J
23%
13.9%
5.5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
28 • Niedrige QualitätSpread unbekanntNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt
Gesamtvolumen10.673,9 €
24h-Volumen0 €
LIMITLESSAuch verfügbar auf Kalshi
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
0.1%2J
-0.1%0%
-0.1%1%
+0.1%4%
+43 weitere Ergebnisse
73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen128,9 Mio. €
24h-Volumen342.588,8 €
KALSHIAuch verfügbar auf Smarkets
Democratic Presidential Nominee
13.5%
0.1%
2.6%
+19 weitere Ergebnisse
32 • Niedrige QualitätSpread unbekanntNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt
Gesamtvolumen9160,2 €
24h-Volumen0,9 €
SMARKETSRegeln
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until the nomination is officially determined. - **Market Close:** This market remains open until a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The market will resolve as soon as an outcome is reached.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **individual candidate who officially wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States**. - If a candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - Confirmation will rely on the Democratic Party’s **official communications**, as well as reporting from: - **Associated Press** - **Reuters** - **Fox News**
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - Once the Democratic National Committee (DNC) or the candidate formally announces and accepts the nomination, the market resolves immediately. - If a candidate later withdraws, is replaced, or is removed before Election Day, this does not impact the already resolved outcome. - Superdelegate counts, internal party projections, or unofficial announcements are insufficient unless they are formally confirmed by the party or supported by the resolution sources.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Verwandte Märkte
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
810.230,6 €United Russia (ER): 96%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?
536.965,4 €Graham Platner: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
410.257,3 €Robert F. Kennedy: 49%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Next French Presidential Election
317.476,4 €Marine Le Pen: 27%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
224.439,4 €Donald J. Trump Jr.: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
Maine Senate winner? (Person)
121.451,5 €Troy Jackson: 39%KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
Verwandte Nachrichten
McMorrow exit tightens Michigan race as Polymarket keeps Vance atop at 20%Blockchain.News
McMorrow exits Michigan Senate race as Polymarket cuts Newsom 2028 oddsBlockchain.NewsColorado socialist upset lifts Polymarket: Lula at 57.5% for Brazil 2026Blockchain.News
Democrats ramp up election-integrity push as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5%Blockchain.News
Colorado Dem upset jolts 2028 chatter as Polymarket puts Newsom at 20.5%Blockchain.News
Colorado primary surprise as Polymarket keeps Maduro favored at 80%Blockchain.NewsRegeln
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until the nomination is officially determined. - **Market Close:** This market remains open until a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The market will resolve as soon as an outcome is reached.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **individual candidate who officially wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States**. - If a candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - Confirmation will rely on the Democratic Party’s **official communications**, as well as reporting from: - **Associated Press** - **Reuters** - **Fox News**
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - Once the Democratic National Committee (DNC) or the candidate formally announces and accepts the nomination, the market resolves immediately. - If a candidate later withdraws, is replaced, or is removed before Election Day, this does not impact the already resolved outcome. - Superdelegate counts, internal party projections, or unofficial announcements are insufficient unless they are formally confirmed by the party or supported by the resolution sources.